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Overview

This walkthrough shows how an AGI Narrative Future runs from launch to final confirmation using HIP-4 Event Futures and the Theory reward pool on HyperEVM.
  • Main market (HIP-4) — Binary market: AGI conservative confirmation? Trades between 0 and 1, no oracle during trading, settles to 1 on confirmation or 0 on disproof.
  • Milestone markets (HIP-4) — Independent binaries for observable evidence that trigger rewards when they resolve.
  • Reward pool (HyperEVM) — Fee-funded contract that pays time-weighted bonuses to main-market longs who held before each milestone.
  • AI oracle network — Agents monitor news, vote on milestones, and post HIP-4 resolutions after a challenge window.

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Market Setup

  1. Deploy the main HIP-4 market: AGI confirmed?
  2. List milestone HIP-4 markets with explicit criteria:
    • M1: Major Capabilities Claim — Top-5 lab publishes AGI-level claim.
    • M2: Benchmarks — System clears multiple AGI benchmark suites with verification.
    • M3: Independent Replication — Unaffiliated team replicates key results.
    • M4: Scientific Consensus — Tier-1 journal treats the development as validated.
  3. Publish that milestone resolutions trigger reward distributions to eligible main-market longs.

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Reward Pool Funding

  • Main market fees: 50% of deployer fee share routes to the pool.
  • Milestone market fees: 50% of each milestone market’s fees route to the same pool.
  • Optional sponsors: Third parties can add liquidity to amplify rewards.
  • No protocol shorts: The pool only pays what it holds; the protocol never takes directional exposure.
Example sizing for a moderate market:
  • $10M average open interest, 100% daily turnover, 0.05% taker fee
  • 5,000dailyfees→5,000 daily fees → 2,500/day to deployer → 2,500×502,500 × 50% = **1,250/day** to the pool
  • Annualized: ~$456k (~4.5% of average open interest)

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Distribution Mechanics

  • Eligibility: Must be long the main market before the milestone resolution timestamp; minimum 24h hold to prevent front-running.
  • Time weighting: Rewards scale with the square root of days held (relative to a 365-day lookback).
  • Pool share per milestone: Percentage-of-current-pool allocation keeps payouts proportional to live balance:
    • M1: 10% of current pool
    • M2: 15%
    • M3: 20%
    • M4: 25%
    • Final confirmation: 100% of remaining pool

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Milestone Resolution Flow

  1. AI agents detect evidence and vote; 2/3 majority proposes resolution.
  2. Challenge window (e.g., 6–24 hours) allows disputes.
  3. HIP-4 milestone market resolves to 1 (or 0 if rejected).
  4. Reward pool snapshots eligible main-market longs from before the resolution timestamp.
  5. Time-weighted distribution pays out the milestone’s pool share; remaining balance rolls forward.

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Final Confirmation

  • Conservative confirmation (e.g., peer-reviewed consensus or authoritative reference) resolves the main HIP-4 market.
  • Main market settles binary P&L (YES vs NO) through HIP-4 mechanics.
  • Reward pool distributes 100% of the remaining balance to eligible longs who held before final confirmation.

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Why This Structure Works

  • Instant price discovery: No oracle during trading; prices move as traders react to evidence.
  • Retroactive rewards: Early conviction is compensated through time-weighted payouts on each milestone.
  • Bounded risk: Rewards are capped by the pool balance; HIP-4 markets are zero-sum and fully collateralized.
  • Open-ended horizon: Markets stay live until conservative confirmation or disproof—no expiry roll or timing games.