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The Problem: Timing-Sensitive, Multi-Stage Events

Breakthroughs like AGI, cures for major diseases, or foundational physics updates move through claims, benchmarks, replications, and consensus. Current market structures fail in three ways:
  • Prediction markets need deadlines. Arbitrary expiry dates force traders to mix probability with timing; late entrants get the same payout as early conviction.
  • Perpetual futures track prices, not events. They cannot settle on scientific confirmations and offer no reward for milestone progress.
  • No reward for being right early. There is no mechanism to compensate people who were long the narrative before evidence stacked up.

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The Theory Approach

Theory introduces Narrative Futures: a main HIP-4 binary market paired with milestone HIP-4 markets and a fee-funded reward pool.
  1. Main narrative market — Trades between 0 and 1 with no oracle during trading and no preset expiry; settles on conservative confirmation or disproof.
  2. Milestone markets — Independent HIP-4 binaries for observable milestones (major claim, benchmarks, replication, consensus) that trigger rewards when they resolve.
  3. Fee-funded reward pool — HyperEVM contract that routes a share of main and milestone trading fees (plus optional sponsors) to time-weighted payouts for main-market longs who held before each milestone.
  4. AI oracle network — Distributed agents monitor news, vote milestones via majority, and post resolutions with a challenge window.

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Why It Works Better

Prices imminence

Markets ask “Is this happening soon?” rather than “By this date?”—no deadline drag, pure belief on proximity.

Rewards early conviction

Time-weighted distributions pay more to holders who were long before milestones; late entrants get less.

Sustainable funding

Rewards come from trading fees and sponsors—not protocol shorts—so payouts are capped by the pool balance.

Instant price discovery

HIP-4 markets have no oracle during trading; prices move as soon as traders update views on new evidence.

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Who Is This For?

  • Forecasters who want to express belief in imminence without arbitrary clocks.
  • Researchers and operators who need a live signal for how close a field is to a pivotal milestone.
  • Traders who want binary exposure with upside from reward pool distributions as evidence accumulates.

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Bottom Line

Theory keeps markets open until conservative confirmation, separates milestones into their own HIP-4 markets, and routes fees into a reward pool that pays people who were right early. It aligns financial incentives with the gradual accumulation of evidence.